Edward N. Luttwak

When I first met Joseph Biden as a newly elected senator in 1974, he was absurdly young and looked even younger, but he had already suffered two tragedies: The financial downfall of his father from elegant affluence to poverty, and the far greater tragedy when his wife and one-year-old daughter died in a car accident.

Biden had just arrived at the Senate and obviously had not done anything of importance but already then, Tip O’Neill – who would himself become a top influential Speaker of the House – said that Biden would rise and remain a Washington political leader for decades. One reason he gave was that the State of Delaware only had a population of 600,000 so a senator would be able to meet a high proportion of the voters during his six years in office, ensuring his re-election if there was no scandal. The second reason was Biden’s exceptional self-control, which he demonstrated after he lost his very young wife and infant daughter.
Britain’s Premier Margaret Thatcher, right, receives US Senator Joseph Biden at No.10 Downing street in London, Jan. 13, 1988. (File photo: Associated Press)

In later years I had multiple occasions to see Biden’s self-discipline at work as he set out to become an influential figure in shaping US foreign policy, starting as a junior on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He rose step by step to become the Committee’s Chairman – a role than can be of very great importance in shaping US foreign policy when a serious conflict is underway, and opinions are divided. Many on the committee knew much less about foreign affairs than he did, but Biden carefully refrained from exposing their limitations – as I saw for myself when called to offer my own opinion.

But it was Biden’s eight years as vice-president for Barack Obama that tested his self-discipline to the very limit. With all his years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, hearing both officials and experts speak at length on the issues of the day, he had accumulated impressive expertise on key issues.

As Obama’s vice president he had his own small staff including a foreign policy advisor, but it was by speaking to Obama himself that he could be most influential, but only if Obama listened to his advice. However, Obama did not listen. That was most unfortunate because on the two largest issues – Iraq and Afghanistan – Biden was 100 percent right and his opponents, including Dr. General David Petraeus – the darling of the media – was 100 percent wrong. Biden’s position on Iraq was that Iran would control the entire country unless its influence was limited to the Shia parts, by separating a Sunni regional government in addition to the Kurdish regional government. Obama ignored Biden’s advice, and the result is that Iran now does what it wants in Iraq. The same happened in Afghanistan. Biden’s position was that the US would get nothing for the billions of dollars and the lives of US soldiers it was losing to build up and train the Afghan Army. He insisted that it was a total fraud, that its so-called officers bought promotions with bribes and that in Afghanistan, Tajiks only fight for other Tajiks, Uzbeks for Uzbeks, Hazarahs for Hazaras, and never for the abstraction called Afghanistan. In the end it was Biden who paid the price politically when Kabul fell after zero resistance by the “Afghan” Army that had cost billions of dollars and many American lives. Biden needed tremendous self-discipline not to react when he saw the superficial Obama applauded by the US elite while he himself was ridiculed for being right.

But it is now after almost four years into the presidency, for which he had to wait a very long time, having mounted his first presidential campaign 33 years earlier in 1988, that Biden’s self-discipline has met its greatest test: Having to resign instead of pursuing re-election.

Democrat candidate, US President Joe Biden, speaks during a presidential debate with Republican candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, in Atlanta, Georgia, US, June 27, 2024. (Reuters)

Immediately after last night’s television debate with Donald Trump, the assembled Democratic experts, one after the other, declared that Biden cannot continue his campaign for another four years as president. Several openly hate Trump, who was certainly too rhetorical and insufficiently factual, but they could not dispute Trump’s claim that he could govern, while Biden repeatedly and very visibly slipped into moments of senile confusion that only lasted a few seconds, but which can only get worse, making it extremely unlikely that he could function as president for as long as two years, let alone four.

For the Democratic Party, the huge problem is that both of its leaders must go to have a chance at winning against Trump in November, because Kamala Harris is simply not considered electable as a president, even though her views are perfectly sensible.

But for now, it is Joseph Biden who must save himself by abandoning his political ambitions and enjoy his remaining years with his wife and family.